The outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war, which was apparently not expected, put Turkey in an unenviable position. The side of Turkish officials is a matter of interest and anticipation, as its bias towards one of the parties to this crisis at the expense of the other automatically means antagonizing this party, and sacrificing its interests with it, which is unlikely in light of its constant endeavor to improve its diplomatic relations and end its political differences with any country.
This policy indicates that the sharp statements issued by Turkish officials regarding the Russian military move against Ukraine are just moral support for the latter, which is facing a very complex situation against an unparalleled military machine, and a very difficult humanitarian crisis, a support that will not be translated at any time. The times lead to practical action on the ground, just like the rest of the NATO countries.
It is not expected that Turkey will take a sharper turn, in which the Turks will line up with Ukraine against Russia in an open and clear way. It is true that through these statements they are defending an ally with whom they have historical and cultural ties, economic and trade interests exceeding $8 billion, military cooperation and arms deals, the latest of which was the drone deal used by Kyiv in its war against the political and military-backed separatists from Moscow in the Donbass region, to The presence of a joint strategic cooperation council, which, since its formation in 2013, has contributed to raising the level of relations between them to the level of strategic partnership, however, it is expected that Turkish support for Ukraine will not exceed the limits of the support previously provided by Turkey to Azerbaijan in its war with Armenia.
Ankara is fully aware that it has with the other side as well, which is Russia, military and commercial cooperation, and common political and industrial interests, and others in the energy field, in addition to the files related to the intertwining of the situation between them in both Syria and Libya, which are interests that would govern or rather restrict any movement Turkey to increase support for Ukraine at the military and logistical levels.
This was evident in the statement made by President Erdogan, declaring that his country will support Kyiv with all its might, but will not sacrifice strong and stable cooperative relations with Russia. From this standpoint, it is possible to understand the Turkish position regarding the request made by Ukraine officially to close the Turkish airspace and maritime straits to Russia, and to prevent the passage of Russian ships from the two Bosphorus straits that connect the Black Sea with the Sea of Marmara, and the Dardanelles that connects the Sea of Marmara with the Aegean Sea. Kyiv realizes that 90% of the military equipment, food, fuel and logistical support materials for the Russian army are transported by sea through the Bosphorus strait.
Ankara apologized for its inability to take this step, given that freedom of navigation in the aforementioned straits is guaranteed by the terms of the Montreux Convention, which regulates the traffic of ships through the Black Sea straits in both peace and war, and which gave Turkey the right to close these sea lanes according to Clause No. (21) If it is in a state of war, but otherwise, the agreement guarantees the free, free and safe passage of ships, and since Turkey is not a party to the current war, it does not have the right to take the step of closing the straits.
And if Turkey has ignored Ukraine’s request to impose sanctions on all Russian business and financial activities in Turkey, and its officials have refrained from delving into this matter, because of the losses that will be reflected on the Turkish economy, which is suffering from a suffocating crisis, and this automatically means entering into open hostility. With Russia, which would jeopardize many Turkish interests, in light of its dependence to secure its gas needs on Russian gas by more than 40%, the Ukrainian demands to provide mechanisms to enhance the defense capabilities of its forces, along with financial and humanitarian support, have been welcomed. from Ankara.
Turkey has shown its full readiness to work on these demands, which would achieve several strategic goals for Turkey as well, perhaps the most important of which is to put an end to the growing influence of Russia in the Black Sea, and to preserve the rights of the Crimean Tatars, whom Turkey considers an ethnic extension of it in the occupied Crimean peninsula by Russia, and trying to improve their living conditions, and reduce the severity of the repression and persecution they face under the weight of the Russian occupation.
This will give President Erdoğan and the AKP a golden opportunity to attract the Turkish nationalist vote, which the Iyi Party had already seized in the 2018 elections from the MHP, as a defender of Turkish nationalism and speakers of its language everywhere.
It seems that the Turkish opposition has realized it, as it hastened to announce a unified position for it, calling for the necessity of discussing this crisis in the Parliament’s General Assembly, and for the government to clarify Turkey’s position on it. Urgent to the members of the Foreign Affairs Council of Parliament, stressing the need to strictly adhere to the Montreux Convention on regulating passage in the straits, emphasizing Turkey's commitment to the provisions of international law in its dealings with what is related to the straits, and not to rush to support one party at the expense of another because of the serious repercussions on Turkey .