The world is holding its breath awaiting the strategic decision that Moscow will take towards Ukraine, and since the decision to retreat is not on the table, Moscow's non-diplomatic options are limited to two things, either incursion or invasion, and each of them has its own political and military form, and its repercussions on Ukraine and its future And on the European geopolitical map, and how to manage the new conflict between Russia and the West in the post-Cold War end stage.
The incursion means Russia's incomplete control over the Ukrainian lands, and it is difficult to know its size, which requires some time in order to determine it on the ground. Will the capital, Kiev, be within the controlled areas, or will it be divided as Berlin was divided after the defeat of Nazism? The question that the Russian president has Vladimir Putin's only answer to it is: What are the limits of incursion? Will the course of the Dnieper River, for example, be the dividing line between the two Ukrainians, one eastern and the other western?
Russia's massive military power allows it to invade or incursion, and to inflict heavy losses on Ukraine, bearing in mind that the occupation will not be easy and quick, as happened in the first hours of the invasion of Afghanistan, as the Ukrainians also possess deadly weapons that may cause heavy losses to the Russians, so in In either case, the invasion or incursion is a strategic dilemma for Russia, which has put itself in a critical position from which it can no longer withdraw, because the retreat has internal repercussions. The real withdrawal from the borders will lead to the withdrawal of some decision-makers from power. Therefore, the Kremlin is left with nothing but occupation, as there is no difference for it between invasion or incursion except with numerous equipment.