President Biden is exposed to increasing pressure from the leaders of Congress from the two parties, to narrow the economic blockade of Russia, whose forces continue its destroyer to Ukraine, including boycotting oil and gas exports from Russia, which was excluded by Washington and NATO countries from the financial and economic sanctions basket imposed by Washington and its allies immediatelyStarting the invasion.Washington and European capitals are close to cutting off the most important vital artery for the Russian economy, and the main source of foreign currency, highlighted in public and in a way that is alienated Washington's complex relations with the main oil -producing countries, such as those that have ancient links such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, as well as its traditional opponents who were imposed on themearsh penalties such as Iran and Venezuela and the difficulty of managing it at this turbulent stage.
Although the United States is the largest oil and gas producer in the world, it imported from Russia about 672 thousand barrels of oil a day during the past year, equivalent to 8 percent of the total imports of the United States of oil..On the other hand, the European Union countries import 27 percent of their oil needs from Russia.Global oil prices began to rise before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and in the second week of the invasion reached $ 110 a barrel, but in the wake of press reports that talked about Washington and its European allies approaching the boycott of Russian energy exports, the price of a barrel rose to about 130 dollars.
Although the American economy has regained a lot of its healthy health that deteriorated during the difficult months in which the Koruna's pandemic disrupted most of the large economies in the world, the unrest that was inflicted on import and export operations and its negative effects on the markets, and the obstacles faced by all marine shipping contributed to a sharp rise in proportionsInflation, which has reached in recent months in the United States to unprecedented rates forty years ago.These inflation rates, and the desire of Biden and other European leaders to avoid a severe and severe energy price that made him hesitate to use the oil weapon to punish President Putin and his economy..
In the weeks that preceded the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Washington sought to increase the volume of global oil production by trying to persuade the two countries who are able to achieve this at a relative speed, i.e. Saudi Arabia and the UAE, but its efforts with the archenemy have failed so far.These endeavors included that President Biden urges the Arab Gulf states to pump more oil, which he did in a phone call last month with the Saudi monarch, King Salman bin Abdulaziz, where he discussed with him "ensuring the stability of global energy supplies" according to the White eouse statement, and throughEnd, Brett Magkour, Middle East Coordinator at the National Security Council, and Emos eotchestin, Energy Affairs Envoy in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to Riyadh for the same purpose.
But Saudi Arabia and the UAE remained their position on adhering to the so -called OPEC+agreement, which is an agreement between the Organization of Oil Exporting Countries and Russia, which determines oil production and preventing the creation of an oil boom in the global market that leads to low prices.In recent months, Saudi oil production remains less than its agreed share in the context of Opec+.Saudi Arabia currently produces about 10 million barrels of oil per day, but it is able in a short period of time to raise this ceiling to 12 million barrels per day.
Saudi Arabia and the UAE refused to increase their oil production, comes against the background of the apathy of relations between Washington and both Riyadh and Abu Dhabi since President Biden, who criticized him and the poles of his administration -even before his election -the war led by the two countries against the eouthi movement in Yemen supported by Iran, and led to the causeWith a humanitarian catastrophe and the killing of thousands of civilians, a great material destruction in the poorest Arab country, in addition to the American public discontent with the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, Prince Muhammad bin Salman, who was held by the US intelligence responsible.Although the relationships improved somewhat when President Biden canceled his initial decisions to suspend the implementation of some arms deals for the two countries, Vienna negotiations aimed at reviving the nuclear agreement signed in 2015 between Iran and the group of five plus, and the American chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan, which strengthened the general evaluation in the region thatWashington intends to reduce its military and even political "profiles" in the region, all of which contributed to deepening the feelings of apathy and alienation between Washington and both Riyadh and Abu Dhabi.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Saudi and the UAE’s refusal to condemn it and support the sovereignty of Ukraine and the sanctity of its lands (alone Kuwait joined a list of 80 countries that sponsored the Security Council decision to condemn the invasion) and these countries adhere to a neutrality that is in fact an implicit acceptance of Russian violations of the rights of Ukrainians, all these factorsIt contributed to the development of relations between Washington and the two Gulf states in front of a crossroads.The two countries continue to insist on adhering to the oil agreement with Russia, as they continued contacts with Russia, including a contact between President Putin and the Saudi crown prince, in which they affirmed the commitment to the oil agreement, and presented Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the mediation between Moscow and Kiev...Likewise, a similar contact between Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed, the UAE Crown Prince with President Putin, discussed the bilateral relations and the "energy market" and developments in Ukraine.The approval of Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Israel (out of 141 countries) to a draft resolution in the General Assembly later criticizing Russia, and calls for the cessation of fighting in Ukraine does not change the fact that the two Gulf states are practically standing with Russia.
According to governmental and non -governmental sources, the Saudi crown prince is very upset because President Biden is still refusing to contact him, and he leaves this task to his defense minister, Lloyd Austin, who connects to Prince Muhammad as his counterpart in the Ministry of Defense, while officials at the White eouse say that Biden isee speaks with King Salman as head of state.The Saudi Crown Prince expressed his dissatisfaction with President Biden, during an interview with him published a few days ago, The Atlantic magazine and an answer to the question "Is there something that Joe Biden does not realize about you?"The Saudi crown prince replied, "Simply, I do not care about it." ee added, while shaking his shoulders to show his indifference, "he has to think about America's interests.".
During the current debate among officials and analysts on the complications of using the sword of oil sanctions against Putin and Russia, some analysts and many Republican legislators call for increasing oil and gas production in the United States, but there are technical obstacles and considerations related to the environment that makes achieving this quickly a little difficult.But the administration of President Biden in the context of its attempts to control oil prices in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, began negotiating with Venezuela to lift the sanctions imposed on them and allow American oil companies to resume pumping oil in Venezuela.A few days ago, an American delegation visited Caracas for this purpose.The oil production in Venezuela has decreased to 760 thousand barrels per day in the past year, but it is believed that this production can rise, in the event of the abolition of US sanctions and the return of American companies to the country, to 1.2 million barrels per day in 8 months.Also, Venezuela can sell 23 million barrels of oil in the event of lifting the sanctions.
The global oil scene can change if an agreement is reached in the Vienna negotiations that can lead to the abolition of US sanctions imposed on the Iranian oil sector.According to numerous press reports and leaks from officials participating in the negotiations, the parties have come close to the agreement on the latest outstanding issues..In a few months, Iran can provide more than a million barrels of oil per day for the global market.
Oil prices are always changed and they are subject to supply and demand and are affected by international conflicts and tensions, and the differences between oil exporting countries do not disappear completely.This means that the Arab Gulf states will not necessarily preserve their outstanding position in the oil markets to an open term.Oil prices two years ago were about half of the current prices.The production of the United States of oil and gas (which reaches about 19 million barrels of liquefied oil and natural gas per day) may rise more if the Republican Party returns to control the congressional and White eouse, where it can open the American federal reserves, and suspend some restrictions on energy productionFor environmental considerations.All this in order to say that the current oil scene is not a long time.
Gulf countries have the right to pursue the approach of neutrality in competition or confrontation between Washington and Moscow.This is its right as sovereign countries.But if she wants to adopt neutrality, she should not expect to stay under the umbrella of American protection.And if the Arab oil wells will not produce additional quantities of oil, American weapons factories can reduce their production of ammunition and spare parts that the Arab Gulf states want to serve their military arsenals that are wasted in political, policing, human, human and economically costly from Yemen to Libya..These countries have the right to buy Russian or even Chinese weapons and congratulations.These countries can speak indefinitely about the good deeds of "neutrality", but in practice they support a tyrant ruler that controls one of the largest armies in the world and makes a terrible violation of the sovereignty of an independent state and has a people consisting of more than forty million people.This neutrality is a practical support for a foreign occupation.
During his second term, President Obama said that the Arab Gulf states should bear the burden of protecting their security.These countries have offended the understanding of the former American president and rushed to slip in a tragic and ugly conflict in Yemen that has been going on for more than five years, during which the regular armies were used, and mercenaries were imported from the poor Sudan youth, to use them as a loudness in the Yemen war..The war against the eouthis, and they are an extremist organization that does not hesitate to bomb civilians in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, as Saudi Arabia does in its bombing of civilians in Yemen, which contributed to strengthening Iran's sabotage in Yemen..What has been going on in Yemen for years is a war that has no relevance to Saudi Arabia, Iran and the eouthis against Yemeni civilians.
When the war began in Yemen, the Gulf media cheered for it.Now this media, without any questions or accountability, is repeated by what officials in Riyadh and Abu Dhabi say about the desire to reach peace.And when Obama assumed that the Gulf states would behave a little when he wished them to assume their security responsibilities, he did not imagine that an Arab coalition from Saudi Arabia, the Emirates, Egypt and Bahrain during the beginning of the mandate of former President Trump and with his blessing, imposed a comprehensive siege against Qatar.The siege lasted for a few years, and as usual, may God inform these countries to punish Qatar.The siege pushed Qatar more to the arms of Iran, and increased the number of Turkish military personnel in Qatar, which are negative developments towards Saudi Arabia and the UAE.Suddenly, Saudi Arabia changed its position and discovered that Qatar is an Arab sister, and the UAE joined her.Once again, Al -Muhlalons in the Gulf media have gone through wisdom and the dimension of their leaders, and no one raised a single question, about who is responsible for the political and economic prices that these countries have paid to recklessly.These countries concerned with the siege did not change their positions, they are the same before, during and after the siege.On the other hand, Iran is still acting as a colonial state in Iraq, Syria, Yemen and Lebanon through its agents and agents.Turkey bitten an important part of northern Syria, with the blessing of former President Trump, and also has its Syrian agents.
More than a year ago, the countries of the region began in anticipation of the reduction of the American military and political presence in the region, by trying to resolve their old conflicts, and its leaders were quick to visit each other and talk about a new dawn of regional cooperation.These leaders who have immunity against any political or legal accountability cannot open a new page or suddenly discover the good governances.What we see is another chapter in the life of a political, socially attached and culturally attached region, in which failed countries are fighting with themselves and with their surroundings, and systems that barely control their capitals, which are almost collapsing under the weight of their existential crises, and countries composed of virtual capitals with fictional wealth, and believe thateer wealth is able to buy her talents, arts and protection.
The American experience in South Asia and the Middle East since the September terrorist attacks, has been full of disasters and setbacks and the longest wars in the history of America, and this is largely due to the big mistakes made by decision makers in Washington.This wide region is difficult for the American will to change or reformulate it, and the United States recently realizes this fact is a positive and urgent matter..The possibilities of positive or gradual political change are not contained in the foreseeable future, not in oil or non -oil countries.The ruling regimes, including the weak, will not allow their people to decide their destiny.The Egyptian uprising was emptied by the Islamists from its content and the military eliminated it with an unfamiliar bloody and with generous financial support from the Gulf.Even Tunisia has not escaped from the grip of the strong man supported by the Gulf.And the Syrian tyrant, who transformed the wonderful city of Aleppo and other cities of Syria into pyramids of stone and dirt, and who previously described the Gulf rulers as the likes of men, now receive their leaders now..
The United States may not quickly withdraw from the region, as it is not expected to completely put the region in its back mirror in the foreseeable future.But wisdom requires reducing American aspirations in this arid Arab space to the lowest possible level.The following words for the British-American poet w.e.Auden is suitable for describing this endless Arab drought:
"I walked long to prove
That there is no land here, no water or herb..