Imagine that you are at an altitude of 28 thousand feet (8534 meters) on Mount Everest, and the last thousand feet go towards the summit, and a terrible mistake occurred, perhaps reflection on the white snow disturbs you, or some important equipment was disrupted, or a friend accompanying you collapsed.Clims close to the place rush to help, and they only have seconds to respond, in a low oxygen environment.
What is the lesson that leaders benefit?This scenario was prepared weeks ago, in an oxygen -rich air, and the head of the mission was directing the climbers during the potential situations and trained them accordingly.
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Douglas Hicks, Dean of Oxford College at Emory University, used this Everest scenario at the forefront of the driving semester training since 1999. The scenario was originally part of the lesson he taught about how leaders dealt with severe crises, but he recently realized that his reliable hypothesis in the Himalayas was Especially related to the presidents who are now entering the third year, the Corona Shura. "We have moved to a time when scenarios could change very quickly, and they can turn upside down within six weeks. Add to it the speed of social media trends, and it is possible to shift from a positive look to a negative view and return again in minutes or hours Instead of days or weeks. ”
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To adapt to this troubled environment, the leaders go to a strategy that was previously intended for unexpected or extremist events. Instead of following a plan, they determine a set of scenarios that may appear, and the response that each of them may require. It is difficult to reduce the size of the major shift for executives. The Boston Strategy says, and he taught management at Boston University and Boston College. Change is the rule now, and executives must integrate new driving methods. "
How to plan the scenarios
The educational areas have employed the driving scenario widely over generations. Will tomorrow one day be iced? Who knows. But if the ice is formed on the roads overnight, parents, teachers, employees and students will know what the school will do: at 6 am the school official will determine whether it should be closed, or opened two hours after the beginning of the normal working hours. The decision will reach parents via text messages and e -mail, and local news stations will announce the actual time updates. Bus drivers will receive the opening schedules schedules, and hundreds of parents will send quick emails to their superiors and ask their neighbors known to sit with children. All this will happen in less than 90 minutes of sending the notification, and it will leave its impact on tens or hundreds of thousands of people.
It turned out that the approach of this scenario is completely suitable for work environments as well.A sudden level of consensus between managers and executives has emerged on how to do so, even if they used vocabulary and vocabulary on a wide range to express their planning planning.
First, the teams meet to exchange ideas about all possible scenarios that may appear in the next two years.Can the world be closed?Can the pandas remove your supply chain from working in Asia?Hicks says that the need for this type of creative insight requires people in executive roles to be largely widely fantasy.
A diverse team of knowledge
Kandway Group, the GODWAY Group group, a digital marketing company based in New York City, recommends that a "diverse knowledge team" to imagine each scenario and identify the resources that each of them may require, and the procedures that will follow it.The engineer may note that employees need a way to connect to the Internet in the event of power outages or Internet service, and the organizational psychologist confirms that it is not possible to rely on employees who suffer from severe stress except for a few hours of work centered per day.
After that, Gongorra asked her team to depict the "cone of uncertainty" for every scenario, which is similar to the map used by meteorological experts to predict the hurricane path.The goal is to determine how each scenario affects customers, employees and work, and expect how the event can change its direction or course unexpectedly.For example, in the case of the hurricane, several areas appear in the cone inevitably sunny and dry, while you may find the same surrounding areas flooded with water or without electricity, despite not being injured directly.
The basis, says Nick Drew, CEO of the Wethrift Electronic Condition Center, says, clearly specifying the starting points that determine when the action should be taken in each scenario.You are also aware of this: Most educational areas announce a closure due to storms by 6 am or 6:30 am.The time is the starting point."You want to be very clear about determining when all stimuli will put into effect," says Drew.His team uses bubble plans to visualize "What if" and "What if the sub -".
Scenaria development
This scenario development process is a basic training for emerging managers, who will learn to stop your fingers and work instead on expecting the changing conditions, says the strategic expert in leadership Jeffrey Dikman, and adds: "This breaks the pattern of using previous directions to develop future plans, and also knows howConditions dictate procedures that lead to results. "
Dikman has teams that think carefully and discuss the capabilities and resources necessary for successful work under these circumstances, such as the workforce and financing.Do not think about the guide to the following scenarios as a strategic plan, but as a "living document that keeps pace with the emerging changes," says Dikman, which is advised to make a monthly reassessment.
How can you actually drive with scenarios?
Before you extend your hand to take your sedative, you have to know that there is no need to delve into the details of thirty plannings from dozens of scenarios.The leadership can be likened today to placing the main coach in the endless football season.In every match, the team may need to use an endless set of plans and responses, but it is safe to say that the players do not memorize every series of possible events by heart (so that only chess experts do so).Football players keep the game rules strategies and perfect common vocabulary, then interact according to instinct.They know the general view of each scenario and respond to it.
Do not need dozens of detailed plans. Instead, the well -applied responses for similar previous events, such as weather, health, or safety emergency situations, can help respond to new scenarios in actual time."We use it as previous deals so that we can find our way," says Hicks.He adds that the scenarios and responses expected with the employees, especially the medium -level managers, are inevitable, and therefore take the measures, "The more communication will be the better."