The newspapers published this morning in Beirut focused on the crises that befall the Lebanese, the latest of which is the return of car queues in front of gas stations, the rise in prices and monopoly by the majority of merchants, and the beginning of the loss of some commodities, especially oils, in a clear reflection of the crisis in Ukraine, from which the whole world will not be spared. News of the elections and alliances were not absent from the newspapers, days before the expiry of the deadline for registering the names of candidates with the Ministry of the Interior, which ends on the 15th of this month, amid anticipation of the next government session that will discuss the issue of the "megacenter".
Al-Akhbar: The government of submission to the Americans in Kuma: No electricity soon... and crazy prices
What was said on the eve of the formation of the government about its only actual mission to ensure the holding of parliamentary elections is still the only “useful” talk so far, while the majority of the political forces active in arranging their electoral conditions keep the door open to a surprise that may make the elections in the news. As for what has become known of the nominations that have been announced or are about to be announced, whether from the main forces or from the advocates of “change”, it does not herald real change.
Externally, pressure continues on Lebanon through the gateway of US sanctions. And the matter is not limited to periodic lists of the names of those whom America has decided are financing the resistance, but rather to a daily threat to dozens of politicians about the consequences of going to electoral alliances that may make the results in the interest of Hezbollah and its allies, in addition to the continuous pressure to approve the border demarcation deal that suits the enemy. In this context, the ugly American blackmail comes by linking any support for the energy sector to the completion of the demarcation file. Internally, the crisis related to the paralysis of the state is exacerbating. A budget based on the principle of austerity means one thing, which is that there is no economic movement in the country, but rather actual paralysis, in return for the disruption of public administrations one after another, and a sharp decline in the purchasing power of public and private sector employees, accompanied by a new wave of price madness.
In practice, the government has done nothing in the face of the various crises, while the financial and monetary file related to the fate of auditing the accounts of the Central Bank, and the suspicion that Governor Riad Salameh has embezzled public funds, remains a hot file, not due to the limited activity in Lebanon, but rather due to External pressure on the background of the prosecutions, with the emergence of a “buildable” signal, in the words of a senior reference, indicating that the Americans themselves are in a difficult position of defense of the ruler. The inner circle of his strong alliance with the banking sector is also being shaken by the judicial investigations of the bankers. This reflected a deep crisis of confidence between Salameh and the banks, especially the large ones, which now feel that the ruler is ready to “sell” them in order to protect himself.
Border Demarcation It is clear that the recent message sent by US Ambassador Dorothy Shea to the Israeli envoy (who holds American citizenship) Amos Hochstein regarding demarcation has brought matters back to square one. Hoekstein considered that Lebanon recognizes that its border is at Line 23, but agreed with the Israelis that this is not a sacred right for Lebanon, and demanded a share in Block No. 8. This step led not only to the freezing of the search in quick operational steps, but also to the deepening of the internal dispute over How to handle the file. As the refusal of the Amal-Hezbollah duo in a committee (which includes representatives of the presidency of the Republic and the government and the ministries of defense, foreign affairs and energy) to study the American request, carried a message that insiders interpreted as reflecting adherence to the framework agreement (with all its disadvantages) in terms of conducting negotiations under the auspices of the United Nations and restricting the mediator’s movement. The American only played the role of facilitator, which is what Hochstein tried to overthrow. The position of the duo also carried a sharper message through the statements of the head of the Loyalty to the Resistance Bloc, Representative Muhammad Raad, who said, simply, that "no drilling with us means no drilling with others." It became clear that Raad's position did not only involve reservations about any concession in the field of shares, but rather carried a direct answer to an urgent message received from France and Total not to prepare for any work in the Lebanese blocks before reaching a final agreement on the demarcation. Practically, this means that Hezbollah decided that if the Americans prevent France from carrying out excavation work in exclusively Lebanese blocks, the resistance will prevent any international company, whether American or European, from carrying out any excavation work at the border points on the Palestinian side. This is a return to the square of balance, which can be seen even in the framework agreement, which does not overlook the April Understanding (the balance of protecting civil interests and the role of the United Nations) nor Resolution 1701 that regulates the management of security stability on both sides of the border.
American blackmail: Any support for the energy sector is related to the completion of the file of maritime demarcation with the enemy
The repercussions of the demarcation file do not stop there. Al-Akhbar learned from a well-informed Egyptian source that Cairo is not about to sign an agreement to supply gas to Lebanon before obtaining two papers: the first relates to a clear, explicit and complete exemption from the Caesar Act sanctions, and the second relates to an explicit, documented and programmed approval from the World Bank to finance the operation. He added, “The Americans told us, frankly, that the papers are not ready yet, and that the Jordanian electricity file is linked to the agreement first to draw Egyptian gas. This is what Lebanon is also reporting from the Jordanian side.” With regard to negotiations with the World Bank to finance the project, the sources of the Ministry of Energy confirm that “procedural” progress has been made, but it is not decisive, and that matters are pending, pending meetings of the World Bank’s Board of Directors. It quoted bank officials as referring to an “additional delay” due to the world’s preoccupation with the war between Russia and Ukraine on the one hand, and because what EDL is offering in terms of plans to achieve an actual end to waste and secure serious revenues is not clear or convincing.
Of course, it is never expected that an official Lebanese position would be issued holding the Americans responsible for the delay and blackmailing Lebanon with the demarcation and energy files due to fear of angering the Americans. However, Prime Minister Najib Mikati, who is responsible for the executive authority, does not at the same time exert any pressure on the Governor of the Banque du Liban to disburse the sums demanded by the Ministry of Energy (about $250 million) to purchase additional quantities of fuel and to meet the needs of service distributors, station operators, and network maintenance.
Amidst this political, governmental and administrative stalemate, Lebanon is witnessing a new wave of price increases in light of the interruption of supply chains and the increase in the cost of shipping and related marine insurance. The crisis is centered on the wheat file. As the stock of this vital substance is not sufficient for more than a month and a half, as a maximum, with the start of the rush for wheat. While the government seems to be in “Kuma”, the data indicates contacts with the US ambassador, who promised to secure a quantity of wheat and mobile silos for storage, but such a mechanism requires between three and four months. The Minister of Economy, Amin Salam, is also marketing that he is seeking to buy wheat from Canada. Noting that the time it takes for ships to arrive from Canada to Lebanon is not less than four months. In the absence of any clear mechanism to confront the crisis, it is expected that the sugar crisis will soon also worsen after the global demand for this substance has increased, especially as we are at the gates of the month of Ramadan when demand increases. On sugar, and in light of Algeria’s decision to stop exporting it, while the earliest possible date for obtaining sugar from Morocco is not before next June.
As for the stock of oil derivatives, the dispute is not currently related to the stock and the availability of quantities as much as it is related to the daily pricing that traders want. The minister rejected the request of companies and station owners for a new increase estimated at about ten percent, in connection with the rise in global prices. The Minister of Energy decided to delay issuing a price installation schedule. Accordingly, the biggest problem will be with the owners of neighborhood generators, who have begun to ration power supply. While a noticeable activity is recorded in the storage of gasoline, diesel fuel and flour, which automatically leads to the expectation of black market activity in the coming days.
"Construction": The Russian-American war on Ukraine revolves around Poland's location on the tenth day. The Crimean War is no longer a Russian-Ukrainian war, as it seemed at its launch. Everything says that it has become clear in features and dimensions as a Russian-American war on the future of the world and the formula of its new order. In the foreground is a war over the identity of Europe, between the Atlantic and neutrality, starting from Ukraine, Russia, which proved to the Europeans based on the Ukrainian example, despite all the media mobilization, financial sanctions and racist measures, that Washington does not protect, and that whoever wants security in Europe must come to terms with the strong neighbor Represented by Russia, it also proved to them that joining the rich Americans does not bring social stability or economic prosperity. The magic key for both is the price of energy, and the secret word for it is the relationship with Russia.
Day after day, the Europeans will stop asking who started the war, and they will ask who can end it and at what cost, and they will stop discussing with whom they stand, but rather who will protect them if they decide to be hostile to Russia, as long as the Americans have fled from the front and contented themselves with sending aid from overseas, and they will search for A smooth flow of energy secures calm for their burning markets, and their motto is “Your near neighbor, not your distant brother.”
The Russian close neighbor is the stubborn opponent for Poland, which the Americans turned into a rear base for the proxy war it is waging against Russia in Ukraine, under the slogan of fighting to the last Ukrainian, where Ukrainian rear headquarters were established under the supervision of the Intelligence Service, while the Ministry of Foreign Affairs resided in the headquarters of the Mayor Border Lviv, which has taken an alternative capital to Kiev, and in the rear headquarters inside Poland, anti-aircraft and anti-tank missiles are being assembled, and preparations have begun to receive warplanes provided by Eastern European countries to Ukraine via Poland, before a stern Russian warning is issued to every country that turns its lands into a base for war. In Ukraine, and the threat of treating it as a partner country in the war, especially the countries that offer their airports to Ukrainian planes, and European sources expected that high-level American-European consultations would take place to decide how to deal with the Russian ultimatum, which was based on a European-American declaration of unwillingness to enter the war, so that Poland’s position would be in The war is the title of the tenth day of it, while the battlefields are recording more progress for the Russian forces, which President Vladimir Putin said are advancing according to the drawn plan and the scheduled timetable.
Lebanon, which is still under the weight of the shock of the position of siding with the American side in the war, is entering a new American depression under the title of demarcating the maritime borders. It was remarkable Hezbollah's position regarding the two matters, in the words of the head of the Loyalty to the Resistance Bloc, MP Muhammad Raad, who asked about the reason for the silence of the owners Calls for neutrality and dissociation when taking sides in a war of this magnitude, where neutrality is necessary and deserves to be dissociated. Regarding the demarcation of the borders, he said that the resistance will not enter the demarcation line, but it will not allow the enemy to infiltrate under the wing of demarcation to impose normalization with camouflaged titles.
On the electoral issue, there is still an open discussion about the future of implementing polling stations gathered in the capital and major cities known as megacentres, and the options available, according to the report of the Ministry of Interior, between disregarding the proposal due to lack of time in order to ensure the postponement of the elections on time, or giving priority to megacentres, if necessary. Elections are technically postponed from two to six months.
Economically, and under the influence of price flare-ups, companies and petrol stations began to hide their stocks out of an attempt to accumulate illegal profits, and scenes of waiting queues at the stations reappeared, and the Minister of Economy and Energy made tours to petrol stations to force the sale of stored materials, while long treatments were absent Lasting, as every time.
The repercussions of the Russian-Ukrainian war are still weighing on the internal scene at the political and economic levels, amid a state of panic and anxiety prevailing in the popular circles in terms of food security and the high prices of fuel, commodities and basic foodstuffs such as oil and wheat, of which the stock is not sufficient for more than a month, according to sources. The Ministry of Economy, which is in contact with a number of countries to import wheat from them to store it to meet local needs in case the war is prolonged. While the scene of car queues in front of gas stations returned, heralding the renewal of the crisis after the rise in global oil prices, as most stations in various Lebanese regions raised their hoses and stopped filling, awaiting the new price schedule to be issued by the Ministry of Energy in coordination with Prime Minister Najib Mikati, who will hold a series of ministerial meetings today. According to what Al-Bina’ learned to follow up on crises.
Oil sources told Al-Binaa that “the new fuel price table that will be issued today will notice the rise in the price of a barrel of oil globally, which means that the gasoline plate will rise in proportion to the increase in the price of a barrel of oil globally.” It is likely that the plate of gasoline will rise by about 50,000 Lebanese pounds, which raises its price to more than 400,000 pounds, and the fuel oil plate is about 50,000 pounds as well, as well as gas.” However, the sources revealed that oil import companies will deliver all stations today in sufficient quantities, and reassured that the crisis will be resolved starting today and we will not return to queues. fuel, as it happened last summer. However, it warned that if the price of a barrel of global oil continues to rise gradually due to the escalation in Ukraine, fuel prices will automatically rise proportionately, and will rise further to the limits of 600 thousand pounds and above in the event that the exchange rate of the dollar on the black market rises to the limits of thirty thousand pounds per dollar. .
Al-Binaa learned that a large number of stations took advantage of the expected rise in fuel and deliberately hid their stocks in their tanks in the hope of achieving additional profits, in addition to that a number of companies also monopolized fuel and did not deliver it pending the rise in prices.
Other sources pointed out that the Ministry of Energy is working on issuing a new price table for fuel commensurate with the global rise in its price, but it did not confirm the issuance of this table today, Monday, because there are large quantities of gasoline with the companies distributing fuel that are supposed to be delivered to the owners of the stations at the old prices. Not according to the schedule. And she revealed that if the global rise in fuel continues to rise more and more, we may be facing more than two fuel price schedules per week.
In the context of this, Minister of Energy and Water Walid Fayyad announced, in a statement during a tour of the gas stations, that “we found more than 100,000 liters in some of the stations that were closed and did not sell gasoline to citizens, and the total of the tours this day amounted to approximately 300,000 hidden liters.” about citizens.” He pointed out that “at some stations, we found that the warehouses did not contain gasoline, and part of the blame lies with the companies distributing the oil, and my information is that there are 80 million liters present with the companies distributing the oil, which must be delivered quickly, and those companies should not wait for the new price schedule, because they received gasoline and diesel according previous price table. And he continued, “Our goal is to secure the material for the citizen at the lowest possible cost for the citizen, but the price of oil has increased globally.”
In parallel, Al-Binaa learned from commercial sources that a large number of merchants, immediately after the start of the Russian-Ukrainian war, stored large quantities of wheat, oil, and several types of foodstuffs and monopolized them in warehouses to achieve additional profits after their imports stopped and their prices rose due to the war.
The Minister of Economy and Trade, Amin Salam, made a surprise visit to a supermarket in Furn El Chebbak, to reveal the quantities of flour and oil and the reason why they were not on the shelves. Salam indicated that “we have received more than 20 complaints that oil is missing from the market.” We will go through the legal procedures of the monopolists to the end, and today we are in exceptional circumstances and we formed an emergency cell of a ministerial committee to follow up on this matter, and we will follow the legal course, and if we find a monopoly we may confiscate the hidden generators and we may distribute them for free to the citizens. Salam announced that "the export of basic materials from Lebanon will stop, and we will also take decisions regarding the import of wheat. Exceptional decisions will be taken tomorrow (today)."
In the context of the evacuation of the Lebanese in Ukraine, a plane arrived yesterday evening carrying dozens of Lebanese coming via Poland from Ukraine to Beirut International Airport, carrying the Secretary-General of the High Commission for Relief, Major General Muhammad Khair, and about 100 Lebanese who left Ukraine to Romania in light of the developments that take place there. The plane took off from Warsaw airport yesterday afternoon.
"The Major General": Ministerial "hit and run" on the front of the monopoly of "fuel and oils" The station owners, supermarket owners, and fuel distribution companies did not lie about the news... so they returned people to the queues, in a new attempt to "show strength" after the cabinet session The latter, which discussed "food security", was entrusted to a tripartite ministerial committee, which remained open-ended, seeking the use of military and security forces to prevent monopoly, in preparation for raising prices and manipulating the citizen's food security, on occasion and inappropriately.
People fell asleep and woke up to scenes of queues in front of the stations, from the south to Beirut, and from the capital to the north, and the Bekaa Valley and the mountains, in addition to a few stations that remained on the ground to meet some requests on a limited scale.
Sources in the General Directorate of Oil suggested that there will be no fuel schedule today, provided that contacts continue to find out how to end the queues in front of the stations, provided that the schedule is issued tomorrow.
State Security patrols toured stations in various regions, while the representative of fuel distributors, Fadi Abu Shakra, went on to raise concerns one after the other, as he announced that the fuel stock is sufficient for only four or five days, calling for the issuance of a new schedule for fuel prices, according to the global rise for the price of a barrel.
According to the information, the Central Bank will not finance any “fresh dollar” operation once requested, but on the condition that it requires negotiations between the government and the ruler.
A prominent Lebanese official believes that the tragic Lebanese situation is open to all security, political and social possibilities and difficulties, referring publicly and clearly to a scenario that seems unacceptable and cannot be popularly criticized, if you will, in light of the political and economic crisis that Lebanon has been suffering from since 2019, and is related to the extension of the Council. The current parliament and the presidency of the republic, and the paradox here is that there is initial international approval to proceed with the extension of the parliament and an absolute rejection of the extension of the first presidency, in light of the continuation of the offer submitted in advance by the international community related to accepting the extension of the current parliament for a full term, on the condition that he elects the army commander, Joseph Aoun, as president of the republic.
With regard to the issue of border demarcation, the official, who conceals his identity, and is likely to be from the March 8 team, does not hide his annoyance at what he calls a “major scandal” in terms of the suspicious management of the negotiation process, and the fear of the alliance between Hezbollah and the Free Patriotic Movement breaking apart. The background to the ongoing debates after the words of the head of the Loyalty to the Resistance bloc, MP Muhammad Raad.
Political sources indicated that the reasons for the decline in Hezbollah's tone towards the direction of the authority in general and the presidency in particular, regarding the positive approach to dealing with the proposition made by the American mediator Amos Hochstein in the file of demarcation of the maritime borders, to the prior understanding that was agreed upon between Aoun and Party B, Representative Gebran Bassil, to complete the negotiations in the interest of Lebanon. She pointed out that the escalation of MP Muhammad Raad's tone regarding the negotiations taking place under the auspices of the American side was circumstantial, with the aim of re-drawing attention and strengthening the nerve of the party's public, and not to object and obstruct the course of negotiations.
The sources recalled that this important file is dealt with by all officials and political parties, so that everyone bears responsibility for any agreement reached, and responsibility is not limited to the President of the Republic alone, or any other official.
Political sources revealed more than one foreign ambassador, who inquired from some officials about the validity of the reported information related to the possibility of postponing the next parliamentary elections to dates to be determined later, and the reasons behind this expectation.
The sources conveyed the surprise of these ambassadors at the frequent news of postponing the elections in this way, after they repeatedly received clear assurances from the government and senior officials, of their commitment to holding the elections as scheduled on May 15th.
The sources indicated that the high rate of postponing the elections is increasing day by day, especially after the unjustified insistence of President Michel Aoun to establish a “megacentre”, in the period separating the election date, after all preparations have been completed, to conduct this election by Without the presence of this center, and not before it, the Ministry of Interior would raise legitimate doubts about serious attempts to obstruct and obstruct the timely conduct of this entitlement, and tend to postpone it to a date to be determined later.
The sources repeated that the scenario of postponing the election date until next September, under the pretext that there is difficulty in forming a new government in the short period separating the date of the presidential elections next October, was discussed and put forward by more than one active political party, and it was not rejected categorically. Rather, it has been seriously discussed during the past hours, despite all the allegations rejecting the postponement of the elections. Rather, this scenario has become acceptable, based on the justifications for the reflection and hesitations of the war in Ukraine and the difficulty of holding elections and the movement of citizens in light of the continuous rise in fuel prices.
However, the calamity entails an even worse calamity, as the occurrence of an attack on the gas pattern at the Al-Aboudiyeh point, between 2 and 3 kilometers, and this line is under experiment to draw in Egyptian gas.
Accordingly, the fear of inability to fulfill any of the government's pledges, whether in terms of negotiations with the International Monetary Fund or the import of gas and electricity from Egypt and Jordan, or even the demarcation of borders, is exacerbated in a path dominated by pessimism, at least to date.
Governmentally, the Megacenter Committee is expected to complete its report tomorrow, in preparation for the cabinet session next Thursday, where ministerial sources are awaiting a cabinet reshuffle to name Minister George Kallas to the Ministry of Information, which became vacant due to the resignation of George Qirdahi on the background of his support for the Houthis in the Yemen war against the Gulf states and the Kingdom Saudi Arabia, provided that the Ministry of Youth and Sports is assigned to a figure from the Makari family who is supported by the head of the Marada Movement, former MP Suleiman Franjieh.
Waiting for the completion of the ministerial committee in charge of studying the report of the Ministry of the Interior on the establishment of large polling centers “Mega Centers” tomorrow, Tuesday, as it is supposed, and for presenting its position in the cabinet session on Thursday, and pending the formation of the ministerial-technical-legal committee in charge of studying the proposals of the American mediator in Demarcation of the maritime borders, Amos Hochstein, which is expected to be formed during these two days. Prime Minister Najib Mikati gives priority this week to follow up on the food security file to put the required remedies on the road to implementation, and to prevent any attempts to monopolize foodstuffs and supplies, similar to what happened in previous periods.
According to sources familiar with the prime minister's movement, he will intensify his ministerial meetings on this file, in addition to meetings he will hold with specialists to extract their opinions on this vital file, whose importance is equal to all other files, especially with regard to the wheat import file, in light of the confusion that has arisen. The events in Ukraine affected the entire wheat market in the world.
In parallel, the prime minister is scheduled to meet today with Minister Fayyad and the Petroleum Administration. He will also follow up with Minister Fayyad on the electricity plan file, in light of the remarks made by the prime minister and request that they be included in the plan before presenting it again to the Council of Ministers.
The Minister of Education and Higher Education and Acting Minister of Information, Abbas al-Halabi, announced that “raising the issue of the megacenter on the eve of closing the door for nominations would open the door to appeals to the electoral process, and thus to the overthrow of the electoral entitlement, ruling out its completion.
The economy, electricity, the Lebanese government
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