Despite Western pressures and sanctions, Russia continues its military movement in Ukraine and is getting closer and closer to the capital, Kiev.
The Russian raids were renewed, on Thursday morning, on the Ukrainian capital, Kiev, where warning sirens sounded, after a night described as the most violent, according to what local officials confirmed.
As for the southeast of the country, the representative of the "separatist" Donetsk forces announced the siege of the city of Mariupol, in the southeast of the country, on the Sea of Azov.
However, the most prominent field development, during the past few hours, was represented by the fall of Kherson, the large city in southern Ukraine. Ukrainian officials confirmed on Wednesday night - Thursday that the Russian army had taken control of Kherson.
This means that the Russian forces can now cross the Dnieper River, which divides Ukraine into two parts, and turn west and north to attack Kiev from the second direction.
The US State Department called for an end to what it described as a "bloodbath".
In a statement on Thursday, I also urged Russian President Vladimir Putin and the Russian government to "immediately stop the bloodshed" and withdraw from Ukrainian territory.
A war between East and West
Ukraine is divided between a predominantly Russian-speaking east and a Ukrainian-speaking west. It is the second largest European country by area, after Russia.
And its geographical location plays a major role in the passage of Russian gas supplies to Western European countries, and this is what reinforces the conflict over this country.
Ukraine is bordered to the northeast by Russia and to the west by the European Union countries Poland, Slovakia and Hungary, which made this country a line of contact between two different political orientations.
In this context, the writer and political analyst, Sarkis Abu Zeid, talked about the background of the conflict, saying: "The war in Ukraine is a war between East and West. We cannot look at this war only from a Russian angle or only from a Ukrainian angle. It is As a result of what international relations have reached, and as a result of the global crisis that a global system is suffering from, it is disintegrating.
He explained that "this war is a summary or the beginning of the end of the stage of the old world order and may be the beginning of the birth of a new world, so what we are witnessing is a kind of a third world war, but with different methods, so we have to study in depth what are the Russian, American, European and other goals, Therefore, I believe that the United States of America created a set of problems to reach this situation, because the main goal of this war is to create a rift between Europe and Asia so that what was planned by the so-called Eurasia would not be born.
He added: "Therefore, this war has multiple dimensions, each side has personal and public accounts. There is no doubt that Russia has strategic and economic goals and the United States of America has goals, and Europe wants to get rid of this nightmare or seeks solutions to its economic and financial problems, all He is involved in this war, and the results of this war will determine the features of the world to come. Therefore, this issue is still dependent on the development of field events that will produce future results, transformations, and dimensions that no one can control from now.”
The negotiations are linked to the field
Although Kiev and Moscow have begun peace negotiations, many observers are not optimistic about any quick results.
They attribute their lack of optimism to the fact that any solution will mean that the Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelensky, must lose to Russia.
According to The Wall Street Journal, the Ukrainian-Russian talks revolve around two goals, which Moscow seeks to achieve: Ukrainian neutrality and Ukrainian lands.
The newspaper indicates that Russia may seek Ukraine's approval of a situation similar to what it did in 2014 by annexing Crimea, and may seek to seize the areas east of the Dnipro River.
In this context, Sarkis Abu Zeid said: "The negotiations will not produce a result before knowing the field. There is a dialectical relationship between the military field movement and the development of confrontations in time and space. On the other hand, there are arduous negotiations that no one can know the results of, because the actual confrontation What is between Russia and Ukraine is what is between Russia and the West, so war and settlement determine the course of the relationship between East and West, so everyone is involved and everyone is waiting for results and seeking to improve their conditions in the coming new world.
Most analysts say that sooner or later the Ukrainian army will collapse, as it fights with all its might without rest, while Russia can reinforce its front lines with fresh forces.
The assumption is that Moscow will seek to install a pro-government in Kiev, leaving it to run the west of the country, while annexing much of the country east of the Dnipro River.
One of the possibilities, raised by The Wall Street Journal afterward, is that the official Ukrainian army will dissolve and insurgencies will begin to emerge. Western countries are expected to support such an insurgency, just as the United States supported the insurgency against the Soviet Union in Afghanistan in the 1980s.
In this context, Abu Zayd said: "Even the Russian progress is not known and has no horizon, because some talk about scenarios of dividing Ukraine, implicated Russia in a long-term war, or entering a dark tunnel, so all these matters depend on the results of the battles and the upcoming settlement. Is there a possibility to produce a new settlement between East and West so easily? Can Russia resolve the battle militarily? Can Europe and America involve Russia in a long-term war in order to exhaust it? All are questions that are decided by the field and the results of the ongoing battles."
Is the world slipping into a global war?
Many countries - most of them NATO countries - send military aid, including modern weapons, to Ukraine, to help it confront the Russian military move.
The Netherlands sent air defense missile launchers, according to official statements, while Estonia sent Javelin anti-tank missiles, Poland and Latvia provided Stinger surface-to-air missiles, and the Czech Republic sent machine guns, sniper rifles, pistols and ammunition.
Even neutral countries such as Sweden, Finland and Germany have sent shipments of Stinger missiles, as well as other shoulder-launched missiles.
The New York Times says that about 20 countries - most of which are members of NATO and the European Union - are transferring weapons to Ukraine to fight Russian forces and arm future insurrections, in the event that the war reaches the control of Russian forces over Ukraine.
Meanwhile, NATO is transferring military equipment and up to 22,000 additional troops to member states bordering Russia and Belarus, to reassure them and strengthen deterrence.
These intense efforts, which Moscow considers hostile, in addition to the concern of NATO countries such as Poland, which the Russian forces are approaching, raise analysts' fears of the conflict developing into a direct confrontation between NATO and Russia.
Sarkis Abu Zeid spoke about this, saying: "There are indirect confrontations between Russia and the West, because there is a fear that the battles will develop into a global or nuclear war. To produce a settlement that everyone is satisfied with before things explode and lead to confrontation or a classic world war, or will everyone agree on the birth of a new world? All these questions depend on the results that are drawn, determined and drawn by the battles.
A dangerous position from Türkiye
The attention of most observers is directed to the Turkish position, as the Ukrainian officials' talk about their reliance on Turkish drones in the face of the Russian forces raised questions about the impact of this news on the relationship between Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin.
Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov said, according to the Russian News Agency, that new Turkish drones have arrived in Ukraine. Reznikov posted on his Facebook page, saying, "Bayraktar drones have already arrived in Ukraine, and they are combat drones."
Erdogan sought, during the beginning of the war in Ukraine, to show his desire to play the role of mediator, claiming that the two sides are friends of his country, but Kiev's revelation that it had obtained new Turkish drones during the war would make this mediation a mere media sensation.
Erdogan sought to continue playing on the Russian-American contradictions, as happened in Syria, Libya and others.
Observers believe that Turkey is facing a difficult choice, either to be with America and its allies in NATO, or to be with Russia.
Erdogan said that Turkey will not abandon its relations with Russia or Ukraine, but "we are determined to use our authority under the Montreux Convention regarding the movement of ships in the straits in a way that prevents the crisis from escalating."
Erdogan was speaking after the cabinet meeting in Ankara, and said that Turkey respects Ukraine's territorial integrity and political sovereignty, adding that he considers "Russia's attack on Ukraine unacceptable."
The writer, political analyst, and member of the American Republican Party, Bashar Jarrar, spoke about this, saying: "Regardless of Erdogan's color, his character and nature will not change. His role will never deviate from his murderous ambition to achieve the greatest amount of gains and at any price for his survival and the survival of his regime in power and expansion." as possible.”
He added: "His position regarding the current crisis is the most dangerous and may hasten its end. For a whole decade, Erdogan has played the role of godfather and contractor for the first and second Obama administration's project to hand over power to the terrorist Muslim Brotherhood group in the Middle East. This was NATO's attempt to expand south." And without binding costs.As for now, what is required from NATO and the United States of Erdogan is to perform what is required of him to expand eastward, in the sense of anti-Russianness, beyond just supporting Ukraine with Bayraktar! What is required of Erdogan will not stop at closing the straits."
Jarrar continued: "Among the characteristics of opportunism is opportunism. Erdogan will stall as long as he can in order to see the direction of the wind and lean with it, but the danger is internal and this is another feature rooted in the mentality of the Muslim Brotherhood and extremist Islamists in general. He may appear to stand with a party and conceal support." For another party, a game he made with the S-400 missile deal, but he will not be able to repeat it or simulate it due to the collapse of his reputation and prestige with the Russian and American presidents alike.
Jarrar indicated that "the transfer of terrorists from Idlib to Ukraine through the only official carrier approved by NATO, Erdogan's Turkey, will be disastrous for everyone. It is inconceivable that the repetition of the disasters of Afghanistan and Syria, what madness is this that is bringing (the mujahideen) to Europe while Stinger missiles are being sent (surface-to-air) and Javelin (anti-tank missiles) to Ukraine. This is mass suicide."
A dirty job for Turkey
It is expected that Erdogan will try to exploit this conflict to occupy new Syrian regions, so he will either bargain with Russia and America or take advantage of their preoccupation with Ukraine to launch new invasion attacks.
Concerning this, Bashar Jarrar said: "Erdogan will not dare to take any move that seems to seize the opportunity for the world to be preoccupied with the Ukraine war, but the real danger remains in terms of assigning him to carry out a dirty mission in order to annoy or exhaust the other party (Russian or American). Here The need lies in diplomatic and combat readiness on the part of Syria in general and northeastern Syria in particular, in order to send an unambiguous message that Erdogan's opportunism has no place among the true allies in the battle against terrorism.Either Russia or America are with this alliance or not, so that matters do not reach To what the Prime Minister of Pakistan did a few days ago when he declared his country's regret for the alliance with America against terrorism!!!
Multiple scenarios
The writer and political analyst, Sarkis Abu Zeid, tried to extrapolate the course of developments, saying: "This war and its consequences have multiple scenarios, including settlement, regime change in Ukraine, division of Ukraine, Russia's defeat and withdrawal from Ukraine, and there may be other scenarios, but what we are witnessing is a real confrontation." between East and West".
It is a confrontation that will result in building a new world order whose features no one knows, because there is an economic crisis from which all these parties suffer, and there is a crisis and a dead end for all international institutions that were unable to produce a fair and equal world order capable of solving problems, so Either it will produce a new global settlement that will save the world from a devastating war, or things will go to deadly and suffocating destruction for humanity as a whole.
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ANHA